Summer weather warning

[Melfuzz]

I read today in the news papers (british) that the hurricanes may be just as bad this year as last, something to do with the pressure that caused the last lot is still around.

This worries me a little because I am going to Orlando in September and really dont want to see a hurricane.

[JuniorMickey]

As a Flordian I can honestly say that I never want to see a year like last year. That said, there is no way to predict what will happen once hurricane season rolls around (June 1 through November 30). There are a lot of factors that go into a hurricane not only forming but sustaining long enough to make it to the US Mainland.

[BevW]

Forcasters can predict all they want, but they don't know for certain. I know that every year people here say "This is it, this is the year for major hurricanes" and nothing happens..well, except last year, and then it was all Florida.

[TimonAndPumba]

I wouldn't worry too much... forcasters cannot predict for sure. Sometimes they just make something out of nothing... I read an artical a few days ago saying that Britain may also bit hit by a Tsunami... whilst that MAY happen I think it's a longshot prediction!

[Mickeymac]

Also remember that sensationalism sells. Do you think you would have read the article as intently if they said 'Hot and Sunny Summer for Florida!"

[JacksDad]

While they can't predict where and when one will hit there is a pattern that has repeated itself over centuries.

Meteorologists think hurricane cycles wax and wane over several decades. From 1920 to 1959, 73 hurricanes—including 30 major storms—struck the United States.

The activity diminished between 1960 and 1999. During that period, 57 hurricanes struck the United States, including 21 major storms. While the hurricane cycle was down, the population dramatically increased on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

But meteorologists think the cycle shifted back to a period of increased activity around 1995. And unlike during the active period during the first half of the 20th century, there are millions more people living near the ocean today.

That means that if hurricanes again prowl the coastal waters in a week or two, millions of people will face a torturous decision—do they stay when a storm is near, or do they evacuate?

Source Link: National Geographic (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/08/0818_040818_hurricanes.html)

I think what MelFuzz read was correct.

http://www.wdisneyw.com/ubb/rolleyes.gif

[Melfuzz]

Erm don't say that I wanted to be reassured.

[JuniorMickey]

So JD, gonna be you and me in Coral Springs this hurricane season again?

[BevW]

Fraid so JM!! I'm not going to be in Florida...oh wait, yes I am...well, I'll be out in the ocean with wdwgrandma and USCwest. he he he

[SorcererMickey]

I read today in the news papers (british) that the hurricanes may be just as bad this year as last, something to do with the pressure that caused the last lot is still around.

This worries me a little because I am going to Orlando in September and really dont want to see a hurricane.

Many of those reports and articles are very misleading. There were no more tropical depression or tropical storms last year if compared to the average for any season which is 15.

The intensity of hurricanes goes through a 20 year and a 100 year cycle. 2002 to 2006 falls within both cycles. 1983 to 1985 and around 1900 were also bad seasons.

The fact that four hurricanes followed a path that took them through Florida was truly a freak of nature.

I will prepare for the next season, but will not freak out about it. Hurricane season lasts 6 months (June 1 - November 30), that is a long time to be worried about something that we have no control over :yes: .

[Alexander]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'll take the snow over the destruction of hurricanes.

[fillerup]

I would place exactly zero faith in the "predictions" (i.e. wild guesses) of the meteorology community. Especially months ahead.

I vividly recall being told to expect tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Charley as it passed 80 to 100 miles to my west.

Six hours later, I stepped out my front door into the calm as the eye passed over and there was a lull in the 100 mph winds.

[Melfuzz]

I just worry. I am not a fan of wind since a storm did damage to my parents house when I was young.