Any Tropical Activity out in the Atlantic

[Irish-Tink]

We are flying out next Sunday (31st) is there any tropical activity out in the Atlantic that might impact our flight / first few days there

:singinrai

[paulf]

JJ will probably be able to look up the long range forecast, I was more intrested in your holiday,,,
4 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!! you lucky sod!!! :thumbs:

[kiltedwarrior]

Theres not much happening out there just now thankfully so you shouldnt have any problems next weekend. :) Cant gaurantee that it'll stay like that for the duration of your stay but you always keep an eye on the weather channel over there to stay up to date with things.

[JuniorMickey]

Only thing active at the moment is a tropical wave which will impact our weather this weekend with lots of rain. The tropics seem fairly quiet at the moment :fingers:

[Irish-Tink]

JJ will probably be able to look up the long range forecast, I was more intrested in your holiday,,,
4 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!! you lucky sod!!! :thumbs:
Thanks :cartwheelwe can't wait

And I am glad to hear there is no impending tropical activity :thumbs:

[DisneyFreak]

Two systems out there are about to become tropical storms as early as tonight.

[DisneyFreak]

Two systems out there are about to become tropical storms as early as tonight.

Thursday Noon Update
Bahamas feature: no closed circulation yet, but there is greater turning of the winds on the north end of the disturbance this morning compared to yesterday. Enough happened overnight to warrant the recon tasking to stick for today -- namely a persistent convective burst -- but without a surface center as of yet, we likely won't see a categorized system today. It's more likely now that we'll get something out of this disturbance, probably 7.5/10, but it may not be until tomorrow. We'll probably see a broad area of low pressure form today -- probably on the SW side of the deep convection -- and consolidate overnight.

Model guidance is at least capturing some sort of wave/trough feature, though none of them (save the FSUMM5 and NOGAPS) really capture it. Since the FSUMM5 has done well with forecasting genesis and the NOGAPS has done well overall this season, I do believe their solutions are worth paying attention to. Both of them bring the disturbance very near the Florida coastline before hooking a hard right and threatening Bermuda from the west in 4-5 days. That's a pretty odd track for Bermuda, as most of their threats come from the south. Most of the other model guidance, save the Canadian (which stalls the system over the Gulf Stream), shows a similar evolution.

Given the current steering flow pattern, with the weakness in the ridge right along the SE coastline, it looks to be a close call for the entire coastline from FL to the Outer Banks, so those along shore need to watch this one closely. If anything changes in the steering pattern -- admittedly not likely -- the threat could be reduced or enhanced over the next couple of days. Assuming shear stays low, the disturbance has the chance to really organize once it gets going...particularly in the Gulf Stream.

SW Caribbean disturbance: no center there either, with weaker turning of the winds in association with the feature as well. The convection is mostly forced by diffluent winds aloft in association with the upper low referenced yesterday, but if that weakens and the convection persists, we could see something akin to Bret form in the Bay of Campeche into the weekend. Not nearly as bullish on this as with the Atlantic feature, but it's got a shot...we'll say 2 or 3/10 in the longrun.

[JuniorMickey]

The one closer to the state is supposed to effect us tomorrow and saturday

[Irish-Tink]

Thanks jj and everyone else who replied. I'll keep my eye on the Franklin thread as well